Helm, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS66 KMFR 172311
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
311 PM PST Wed Dec 17 2025

.DISCUSSION...While the occasional isolated shower may move onto the
Oregon coast or drift over Douglas County, activity is minimal this
afternoon. Chances for light rain showers develop across the area
late tonight into early Thursday morning, with chances for moderate
showers along the coast and the Cascades later in the morning into
the afternoon. Curry and western Douglas county may see heavier rain
showers on Thursday evening. Overall, the precipitation from an
atmospheric river will stay to the north of the area on Thursday.
Snow levels of 8000-9000 feet will make snowfall a non-issue for all
areas expect the highest peaks and ridgelines.

Breezy to gusty winds remain in the forecast across the area for
Thursday. The strongest winds will affect coastal headlands as well
as portions of Lake County south of Silver Lake down into the Warner
Mountains in Modoc County. These Warning-level winds can make travel
dangerous or move unsecured items as well as knock branches off of
trees. Advisory-level winds are expected in the Shasta Valley later
in the afternoon. Other areas will see winds that stay below hazard
thresholds. The Illinois and southern Rogue Valley (Ashland to
Phoenix) may see occasional stronger gusts but should still
generally stay below advisory levels. These breezy to gusty winds
continue into the day Friday.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will sag southward over coastal counties,
across Douglas and Josephine counties, and over the Cascades through
Friday morning. Jackson, Siskiyou, and Klamath counties will see
moderate to locally heavy rainfall later in the morning. Showers
across the area ease through the afternoon and evening, with only
light showers remaining by Friday night. Snow levels look to drop to
6500-7500 feet on Friday, which would bring snowfall to terrain
around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake as well as Winter Ridge, but
winter weather is not a widespread concern through Friday.

Gusty winds continue through Friday morning as well, with hazard
products remaining over coastal headlands and Lake County areas into
Friday afternoon. While elevated winds will remain over east side
terrain through Friday afternoon and beyond, these lingering
winds will stay safely below hazardous levels.

While westerly flow may support light coastal showers on Saturday,
overall activity looks minimal to start the weekend. A weak front
and a shift to southwest flow looks to bring more showers,
especially to Curry and western Siskiyou counties on Sunday and into
Monday morning. Snow levels are forecast to drop to 5000-5500 feet,
which may bring some snow to the Cascades. Overall, this event looks
unimpactful with current information. Activity generally looks to
continue in some form through the holiday week, although the details
are currently coarse. Deterministic imagery both ECMWF and GFS
models show a deepening trough around a cutoff low towards midweek,
but with some divergence in how that trough develops. Ensemble
guidance for both the ECMWF and GFS show Mount Shasta getting some
rainfall on the 24th and 25th, but with more sporadic signals in
other locations (Especially in GFS outcomes). Please stay tuned for
details as they come into more complete focus. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across northern
California and southern Oregon to start the TAF period, with areas
of clouds clinging to terrain. Guidance shows slight chances for
decreasing visibilities in the Rogue Valley early Thursday morning,
but significant fog is not currently expected. Winds start to
increase over terrain, with low level wind shear expected. Light to
moderate rain showers develop along the coast, into Douglas County,
and over the Cascades towards the end of the TAF period. Other area
s may see periodic light rain showers. Snow levels of 9000-9500 feet
will minimize winter weather concerns. Rain showers may bring
locally lower ceilings and visibilities as well as obscure elevated
terrain. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, December 17, 2025...Breezy
southwest winds will persist through the evening with seas remaining
elevated and steep to very steep and hazardous. A strong front will
move into the region early Thursday morning, and conditions will
quickly deteriorate for Thursday and into Friday. Winds will quickly
ramp up to widespread gales across all areas, with storm force winds
developing from Gold Beach northward and within 40 nm from shore.
Expect widespread south winds of 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt,
with storm force winds of 40 to 45 kt and gusts to 60 kt. Wind
driven seas will become very steep and chaotic 18 to 24 ft. A Storm
Force Warning is in effect for Thursday morning through Thursday
evening, with a Gale Warning in effect for all other areas.

The front will move southeast into the marine waters Thursday night
with winds shifting from south to northwest and diminishing, first
over the northern waters, then in the southern waters Friday
morning. In a relative sense, winds will be lighter later Friday
morning into the weekend. Seas are expected to remain elevated
Friday morning, then they will also gradually diminish later Friday
afternoon into the weekend. Lastly, It`s also worth noting, moderate
to heavy rain will accompany both fronts resulting in limited
visibility. /BR-y

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...A strong storm will bring storm force
winds to the marine waters and strong damaging winds to the coast
Thursday morning and afternoon. These winds will build very steep
ocean waves that will result in large breaking waves of 20 to 25 ft
in the surf zone. This will lead to hazardous beach conditions
Thursday for area beaches from Port Orford northward. If you have
plans to visit area beaches on Thursday, stay away from the surf
zone during this time as beaches and shorelines will become
dangerous places. Jetties, rocks and logs are NOT safe. Inundation
of low lying areas is possible and this could result in beach
erosion or damage to exposed infrastructure. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     ORZ023>025-029>031.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for
     ORZ021-030-031.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for ORZ021.

CA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ081-
     084-085.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday for
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Storm Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&

$$

MNF/TAD